CReDo – Extreme Heat
Project stats:
July 2024
Why is this project important?
The UK water sector is only just beginning to understand the effect of extreme heat on asset failure. On top of this, the failure cascade of critical connected utility infrastructure is even more unknown. The Climate Change Committee reported that “[The] connectedness of infrastructure systems means that climate and weather-related impacts in one system can cause large and cascading failures in connected systems” and “many organisations are struggling to fully assess risks from infrastructure interdependencies.”
This lack of understanding is primarily due to temperatures of over 40°C, as seen in summer 2022, having never previously been experienced in the UK. During this event, a significant number of water assets were impacted due to heat or required emergency cooling actions to maintain normal operation.
By 2070, summer temperature increases of up to 6.8˚C are expected in the UK alongside an increased frequency of prolonged extreme heat events. Without a better understanding of how these extreme heat events will impact water company assets and associated critical utility infrastructure, and better resilience planning across systems and sectors, the impact to communities will only increase.
Are you a water industry professional who would benefit from a better understanding of extreme heat on your assets?
What is CReDo?
The goal
Probalistic Asset Failure Models, supported through expert elicitation methodology to obtain data on the impact of extreme heat on assets which was not otherwise available
The CReDo Asset Risk Tool, an online extreme heat projection module developed for use by the water sector to forecast future extreme heat events and their probable impact on assets and systems.
Who can benefit from the CReDo Asset Risk Tool?
Strategic Planning
The Tool can be used to understand asset resilience and vulnerabilities to extreme heat scenarios throughout the planning cycle. This will help with prioritisation of organisational investment and decision making, and support resilience reporting.
Emergency Planning
The Tool can provide users with a better understanding of risk to assets and vulnerabilities in the instance of extreme heat scenarios such as a heatwave.
Infrastructure Design
The Tool can be used to support and inform the design of water assets. It can support resilience assessments required during the design phase and help the design team to design and deliver assets that are more resilient to extreme heat scenarios.
What’s next for the CReDo journey?
Climate change is a systemic challenge, and it demands a systems-based solution. To-date, CReDo has demonstrated in principle the benefits of a joined-up approach and how better information and coordination across infrastructure enables providers to identify better solutions. Collaboration through connected digital twins is key to tackling climate change.
The CReDo vision is to make systems-based decision optimisation on climate change a reality. As CReDo develops, it will enable asset owners, regulators and policymakers to collaborate using the CReDo digital twin to make decisions that maximise resilience across the infrastructure system.
The CReDo Asset Risk Tool is the first step towards enabling that vision within the water sector.
For more information about CReDo’s ongoing development and opportunities to get involved, please contact credo@cp.catapult.or.uk
